Oriens #184
Noise
Markets are rising! Japan’s Topix 500 and the the S&P Asia 50 Index climbed 1.36% and 1.69%, respectively. Europe’s Stoxx 50 climbed 0.58% at 8:06 a.m. EST. S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures climbed 0.22% and 0.32%, respectively, at 8:09 a.m. EST.
On the virus et al:
The new strains do seem more dangerous. Our scenario remains an epidemiological stop-and-go and a sin-shaped (س) economic recovery.
Israel, the World leader in vaccination, is producing mostly positive data on the effectiveness of the vaccines “in real life”. But the interaction between vaccines, the virus, and hospitalizations will make interpretations increasingly difficult.
There’s now illegal markets of fake tests to travel internationally. File it under predictable, yet mesmerizing.
Vox has a 7-minutes video explaining mRNA vaccines. Highly recommended.
Above the Noise
Bloomberg reports that sea levels are rising more than the most pessimistic forecasts. Meanwhile, the FT makes yet one more appeal for unified, clear, and transparent climate reporting standards. America cities, for instance, are underestimating CO2 emissions by an average of 18%, according to Reuters. The FT also forecasts that “carbon prices will transform industry”, assuming, of course, that such a price is ever set up at the global level, but don’t hold your breath as China builds additional coal capacity.
Google and Microsoft quarrel in Australia, reports the FT. Given the global nature of these companies, this might set a precedent for other jurisdictions.
According to Bloomberg, Ant reaches an agreement with regulators and will no be a financial holding company. Relatedly, the FT reports that Alibaba is planning to issue a bond for up to USD5 billion, lower than the previous target of USD5-8 billion. NOBODY is above the might of the Chinese Communist Party and Chairman Xi.
The WSJ describes development in the jet debt market: from airlines not paying their leases, to record issuances by jet-leasing companies. Everything is very confusing these days…
Chart of the Day
This is the 3-month tin spread. This astonishing chart is not yet driven by the Reddit and WallStreetBets crowd, bu but by the boom in chips and electronics in general, according to Bloomberg.
Sun Ray
But a funny thing has happened during the current bull run. Wall Street has been noticeably absent. This was true in the first part of the bull market because so many people were skeptical of Wall Street’s ways after the 2008 crisis. And a flood of money into index funds led to one of the most boring bull markets in history. When a company like Vanguard is leading the charge, it’s much harder for Wall Street to make money from the masses.
Ben Carlson. How The “Dumb” Money Won
Long Reads for the Weekend Stack
Bloomberg has a profile of Merck Mercuriadis, the CEO of Hipgnosis, a company buying music royalty on a leverage. Recommended, particularly as music apps increasingly become utility-like.